The average trade guess is looking for a decline of about 100 million bushels in the 2012 corn production to about 10.63 bbu. Iowa State University Ag Economist Chad Hart says the key numbers for corn may be changes in export demand.
Traders, on average, expect the ending stocks number to increase 20 million bushels to 667 mbu, due to lower exports lower feed demand. He adds that ethanol production has “stalled out.”
That sector requires about 10 percent less corn than a couple of years ago. He doesn’t expect that to change for the next couple of years.
Hart says producers all over the Midwest described soybean yields last fall as “better-than-expected.” He agrees with a survey of traders that says USDA will reflect those better yields and raise the 2012 soy harvest to almost three billion bushels. Bulls argue that demand has been so impressive, that higher production has already been priced in. But Hart says that – like with the corn, a pullback in exports could hurt soybean prices.
Friday’s report will be released at 11:00 a.m., a new release time as we roll into 2013.